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RIGHT NOW: 3 MDs   1 watch   11 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 2% HAIL: 15% WIND: 30%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Jul 23 16:30 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

2% chance of a tornado (show map)

15% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

30% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 231629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN ND/NERN SD ACROSS
CENTRAL MI AND NWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NY INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY AS MULTIPLE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AND NEWD OVER ND AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND NERN IA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL MODIFY THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION AND MODULATE
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ND DURING THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE STRONG CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SERN ND IS ON THE NOSE OF DRYING ALOFT AND LIKELY
INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD WITH TIME AND
SPREAD INTO AN AREA FROM SERN ND/NERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES FILTERED SUNLIGHT/STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING WILL OCCUR.  THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
AMPLE MOISTURE INSTABILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MODIFIED WARM
FRONT...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO BUILD SWD TOWARD
NERN SD THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

OTHER STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALIGNED IN SEVERAL BANDS
FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NERN IA/SWRN WI.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
CLOSE TO THE COMPOSITE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATION...AND HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DURING THE MORNING.  THE DOWNSTREAM CIRRUS PLUME
WILL TEMPER DIABATIC HEATING IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
STORMS...BUT 12Z MPX SOUNDING EXHIBITED LARGE ANTECEDENT MUCAPE AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

...ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER SRN QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND.  DOWNSTREAM CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING FROM PARTS
OF ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS DIABATIC HEATING
CONTINUES/STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SEE MCD 1369 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SRN PA AND NRN WV ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION...
A VERY WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRESENT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE 90S WITH DEW POINT VALUES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  12Z RAOBS AT PIT AND IAD EXHIBIT LARGE
DCAPE PROFILES SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS TO
DEVELOP WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK /5% WIND PROBABILITY/ HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO.

..WEISS/DEAN.. 07/23/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z


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