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Severe weather outlook map valid starting Oct 21 13:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

< 5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

< 5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 211219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION. A
FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE BLOCKED
MID-LEVEL PATTERN PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS
BLOCKING REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE FROM ERN PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS INTO ONTARIO AND A DOWNSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGS
EQUATORWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN NY WILL DEVELOP
SEWD TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.
FARTHER W...A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU WILL SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS. 

...ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIGRATORY
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT TO PROMOTE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL REMAIN MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE INFLUENCES
OF A WEAKENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. HERE...ONGOING STORMS OVER THE TX TRANS PECOS REGION SHOULD
PERSIST TODAY WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NWD WITH TIME.

...NERN U.S./MID ATLANTIC...

COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
SPREAD SEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INVOF THIS DEEPENING
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. 

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIR MASS PRESENT OVER FAR SRN TX AND THE SRN FL PENINSULA. A FEW
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
SD/NEB NEAR THE PACIFIC FRONT-WARM FRONT TRIPLE POINT AS
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL
LLJ.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF THESE TSTM REGIMES.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/21/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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