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TODAY'S STORM REPORTS: 82 since 7AM CDT

RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   9 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: 15%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Sep 02 12:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

15% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 020515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY TO KY...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NEBRASKA PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY TRACKING ENEWD
THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...REACHING NY BY 03/00Z. 
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD TEND TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD INTO NRN OK...AND THEN
ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.

...NRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ERN OK ENEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU TO INDIANA AND OHIO. 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT
AND SUPPORTED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEBRASKA TROUGH AND
WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A 30-40 KT WSWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT CONCERN REMAINS FOR ASSOCIATED
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS LIMITING DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION.  DESPITE POOR
700-500-MB LAPSE RATES...SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RATHER MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /PW TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY PRIMARILY FROM SRN OH/WV WWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NEWD EXTENT.  A
STRONG BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...WITH 700-MB WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND
500-MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY TO
NY. THIS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDORS BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY AND SRN OH TO
SRN NY.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH SRN AND WRN
EXTENT...LIMITING THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/WRN MO TO NORTHERN OK...
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE TUESDAY TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH AND A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY EWD-EXPANDING HIGH PLAINS
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  WLYS WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD
WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING MAINLY A MULTICELL STORM
MODE.  THE FORECAST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS/DEAN.. 09/02/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z


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