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RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   0 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: < 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Aug 29 13:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 291250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL/SRN MN TO UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN TO UPPER MI...
A LARGELY DECAYING MCS IS ONGOING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN INTO
NORTHERN WI. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH CELLS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE MCS...OWING TO PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 DEG C/KM PER 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
SUBSIDES AMID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LARGELY SURGING WELL SOUTH OF THE
CLUSTER IN MN.

BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY LATE DAY
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-3000 J/KG. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES SHOULD REACH
SOUTHWEST MN TO WESTERN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY MERGING
WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING MCS. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN FROM 15-20 KT OUTSIDE
OF UPPER MI/FAR NORTHERN WI...WITH 20-30 KT WITHIN THIS REGION BUT
LIKELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. OVERALL SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK...SUBSIDING BY LATE
EVENING.

..GRAMS/COHEN.. 08/29/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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