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RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   0 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: < 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Nov 21 20:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

< 5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 211946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK SWWD TO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE TWEAKS...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THIS UPDATE AS PRESENT METEOROLOGICAL REASONING APPEARS TO
REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EVOLVING SCENARIO.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS ESEWD TO NRN MEXICO OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE PAC COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...NO DRAMATIC INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO TX...AS THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NW CARIBBEAN.

RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST PROFILES WITH THIS RETURN FLOW CYCLE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING INLAND
ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAK BAND OF SLOWLY-DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM CLL TO JUST W OF CRP/BRO...WHICH WILL SPREAD NWWD
THROUGH TONIGHT IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. THE INCREASE IN WAA
WILL CORRESPOND WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM
ROTATION POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND WAA INITIATION
MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST/SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS WILL
BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NW TX OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z


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