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RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   2 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: < 5%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Dec 03 20:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 031937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THIS THREAT IS MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

...DISCUSSION...
THE PREVIOUS REASONING IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK. A
MINOR EXPANSION OF THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NM IS THE ONLY CHANGE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.

..ROGERS.. 12/03/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1013 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016/

...TEXAS...
A BAND OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRETCHES ACROSS TX TODAY...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
GULF COAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  OCCASIONALLY...ISOLATED
STORMS WILL SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE MID/LOW LEVEL ROTATION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COASTLINE...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE INLAND
PENETRATION BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT AND FORCE THE
BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION. 

FARTHER WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE RISK APPEARS
QUITE MARGINAL.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z


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