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RIGHT NOW: 1 MD   6 watches   59 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 5% HAIL: 30% WIND: 15%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting May 27 01:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

5% chance of a tornado (show map)

30% chance of hail 1" or larger and a chance of SIGNIFICANT hail 2" or larger (show map)

15% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 270100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN CO AND
ADJACENT SWRN NEB SWD ACROSS KS AND WRN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AND SLGT
RISK AREAS...AND EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND -- IN SOME AREAS...INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM ERN CO/NEB
SWD INTO KS AND MO ATTM...WITH OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS INVOF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM WRN KS SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND
AREA.  FINALLY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF SERN
TX...N AND NW OF THE HOUSTON AREA.

GREATEST SEVERE RISK RESIDES OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KS...NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE KS/CO BORDER AREA SURFACE LOW...AND THEN FARTHER S INTO
PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND SWRN TX INVOF THE CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR OBSERVED ACROSS THESE AREAS
AS 50 KT SWLY FLOW CONTINUES SHIFTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SLYS...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE TORNADO RISK WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE MCS/S ACROSS BOTH OF THE KS AND
TX PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET.  OVERALL RISK
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PROCESS/OVERTURN REMAINING AREAS OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 05/27/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

  


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