when mother nature's out to get you, wickedwx has got your back

More weather sites:
cyclocane - hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones
tornado hq - live tornado tracker
my future radar - radar from the future
severe weather outlook - get your personalized outlook

RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   0 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: < 5% WIND: < 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Feb 14 16:30 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

< 5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

< 5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 141618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FROM PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT E PAC RIDGE AND IN WAKE OF DEPARTING E CST
TROUGH...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL U.S AS A SERIES
OF SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES PROGRESS SEWD FROM THE RCKYS INTO THE
PLNS/MS VLY. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS PATTERN...NOW OVER IA...SHOULD
DEAMPLIFY IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY LATER TODAY...WHILE JET
STREAK NOW IN WRN MT CONTINUES SE INTO KS/OK BY 12Z MON...ENHANCING
DCVA ACROSS THE OZARKS/LWR MS VLY.

AT THE SFC...ARCTIC SFC RIDGE WILL ADVANCE E INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ATOP RESIDUAL SFC-BASED COLD LAYER FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH
VLYS.  

...SE MO/NE AR/WRN TN/WRN KY THIS MORNING...
CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATE PLUME DRAWN EWD IN BASE OF IA UPR IMPULSE SHOULD FURTHER
NARROW TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ENE AWAY FROM MARGINAL
MOIST AXIS. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDER SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH.

...N TX TO LWR TN VLY TNGT/EARLY MON...
ELEVATED WAA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE S
CNTRL/SE U.S. TNGT AND EARLY MON AS DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE RCKYS
REACH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS...AND AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE E CST.
THIS WILL FOSTER INCREASED SWLY 925-850 MB FLOW FROM E TX ENE INTO
THE TN VLY/CAROLINAS. RECENT COLD-AIR INTRUSION AND CURRENT SFC/STLT
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...ALTHOUGH PW
MAY INCREASE TO AOA 1 INCH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
ARKLATEX NEWD INTO W TN. COUPLED WITH INCREASING/NOT STRONGLY
FOCUSED HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 00-03Z FROM N
TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND PERSIST BEYOND 12Z MON. WHILE THE SRN
END OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY INCLUDE A FEW PATCHES OF NEARLY
SFC-BASED ACTIVITY OVER NE TX...NEITHER THE NEAR-SFC BUOYANCY NOR
LOW-LVL WIND FIELD ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE AN
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT.

...SE LA 09-12Z MON...
A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NNE FROM THE N CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO INTO SE LA. THE ONSHORE PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THE UPDRAFTS FAIRLY SHALLOW. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING OVER
THE REGION APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH 12Z.

..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 02/14/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

  


severe weather links


site by hayley.ws