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RIGHT NOW: 2 MDs   2 watches   4 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 5% HAIL: 30% WIND: 30%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Apr 25 12:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

5% chance of a tornado (show map)

30% chance of hail 1" or larger and a chance of SIGNIFICANT hail 2" or larger (show map)

30% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 250555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE LATTER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA NEVADA LATER TODAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
REGIME...INTO AN ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED FILLING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE
PERTURBATIONS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12Z TODAY...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND...A NARROW
WEDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WRAPPING INTO THE WEAKENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...BENEATH AN EVOLVING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED...BUT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO INTO TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS/EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERALLY
BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  MUCH AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
SUGGESTED...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY  CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR QUICKER THAN THE MORE
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY.  AND ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY. 
HOWEVER...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK TO
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

  


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