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RIGHT NOW: 1 MD   0 watches   7 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 10% HAIL: 30% WIND: 15%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Apr 29 13:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

10% chance of a tornado (show map)

30% chance of hail 1" or larger and a chance of SIGNIFICANT hail 2" or larger (show map)

15% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 291300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH TEXAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK...CENTRAL AND
ERN TX...AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ATTM PER MORNING WV LOOP
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD
OUT OF THE PAC...REACHING THE CA/NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  IN THE E...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SERN
STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST IN WLY FLOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW MOVING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN N TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/NWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 
FARTHER E...A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A ROUGHLY W-E WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS EVOLVING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
VICINITY THIS MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE/SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING.  AS QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE/INCREASE -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THUS
LIKELY HINDERING POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ATTM...A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS -- NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW -- AND SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY -- ALONG THE
DRYLINE.  AS THE LOW/DRYLINE SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND WARM-SECTOR CAPPING GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. 
GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE S OF THE
WARM FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  

FARTHER N ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION INTO
OK...NWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...LIKELY
HINDERED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BY ONGOING
CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS/OUTFLOW. WITH THAT SAID...SEVERAL CAM RUNS
DEPICT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE ERN OK/WRN AR AREA EVENTUALLY
DEPARTING EWD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT INTO SRN
OK -- ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...RISK FOR
TORNADOES WOULD APPEAR MAXIMIZED.  THUS...WILL ADJUST WRN PORTIONS
OF THE ENH RISK AREA SWD -- TO WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO RESIDE.  

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX
AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AND TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
STRONGER STORMS IN ADDITION TO SOME TORNADO RISK.

FARTHER E...AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS AR WILL LIKELY PERSIST/SPREAD EWD
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT -- WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LA AND INTO CENTRAL MS.  GIVEN
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...THE ONGOING/EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER -- PLUS NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER E ALONG THE FRONT -- WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/29/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

  


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