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RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   0 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 15% WIND: 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Mar 31 12:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

15% chance of hail 1" or larger and a chance of SIGNIFICANT hail 2" or larger (show map)

5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 310552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM W TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND
PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE TX-MEXICO BORDER REGION TO THE S OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.  A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY OVER NWRN TX WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE. 

...SRN PLAINS...
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SAMPLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
WHICH FEATURED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION TODAY.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NWRN TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE
ACROSS NWRN AND W TX.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 55 DEG F NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE LOWER
60S FARTHER E.  DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MEXICO TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP DURING THE 21-23Z
PERIOD YIELDING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS.  

COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AOB -15 DEG C AT H5/ WILL FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FEATURE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST
FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN 25-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELL
HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN OK DUE IN PART TO
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND PRIOR TO THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE
LIFE CYCLE.  

...SERN U.S...
THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
LIKELY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND
BECOME GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING
FROM AR ESEWD INTO AL/GA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /1000-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/. 
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A LARGE
HAIL THREAT.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND MESOSCALE FOCI DETAILS
BECOME MORE APPARENT WITHIN A PORTION OF THIS REGIONAL CORRIDOR...AN
UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 03/31/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

  


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