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TODAY'S STORM REPORTS: 24 since 7AM CDT

RIGHT NOW: 1 MD   0 watches   5 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Sep 18 01:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 180044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING.

SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU HAS PROGRESSED SSWWD
INTO FAR NERN OK AND NWRN AR.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
PROPAGATING AT ROUGHLY 15-20KT AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
LATEST WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER ERN CRAWFORD COUNTY AR.  HOWEVER...HAIL
SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

FARTHER NW...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD WITHIN FAVORABLE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW...THOUGH
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS NWRN MEXICO
AND ARE SPREADING OVER SERN AZ/SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE POOR WITH THIS SYSTEM 00Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SUGGESTS
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. 
ANOTHER PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE.  LONG RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW A WEAKENING CIRCULATION
JUST WEST OF AMA AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS/OUTFLOW SUGGEST
THIS CLUSTER WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD I-20 BEFORE WEAKENING.

..DARROW.. 09/18/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z


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