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RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   0 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: < 2% HAIL: 5% WIND: < 5%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: < 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting Dec 18 12:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

< 2% chance of a tornado (show map)

5% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

< 5% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 180523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL FEATURE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CONUS TODAY.  A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE MO OZARKS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TODAY AND TO W TX AFTER DARK.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WRN PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE OVER S TX.

...TX...
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE MIDDLE TX
COASTAL PLAIN NEWD INTO SWRN LA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  BY LATER
IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NEAR THE FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  FORCING FOR
ASCENT VIA WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE W AND CORRESPOND TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
AND N OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL BUOYANCY /250-1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/
DEVELOPING AFTER DARK AS THE H85-H7 LAYER MOISTENS.  THE EWD
ADVECTION OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/18/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z


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