when mother nature's out to get you, wickedwx has got your back

More weather sites:
cyclocane - hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones
tornado hq - live tornado tracker
my future radar - radar from the future
severe weather outlook - get your personalized outlook

RIGHT NOW: 0 MDs   0 watches   3 warnings  

TODAY TORNADO: 5% HAIL: 15% WIND: 15%

TOMORROW ANY SEVERE: 15%

DAY 3 ANY SEVERE: 5%

DAY 4-8 ANY SEVERE: < 5%


Severe weather outlook map valid starting May 26 12:00 UTC

Legend: non-severe thunderstorms slight risk moderate risk high risk

detailed outlook

5% chance of a tornado (show map)

15% chance of hail 1" or larger (show map)

15% chance of winds 58 mph or greater (show map)


source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC AC 260552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER FLOW MAY TREND A BIT MORE ZONAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY WEAKEN SOME...BUT A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM.  AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE APPROACHES BAJA...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THIS LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL LOW...WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH...NOW SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...AHEAD OF ANOTHER BROAD LOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  AS THIS CONTINUES...THE CONSOLIDATING IMPULSE
IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE
APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS FRONT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED...DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR TO ITS
SOUTHEAST.  PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT IS THE CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD
POOL ACCOMPANYING THE EXTENSIVE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE NOW ADVANCING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. 
ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SURFACE
RIDGING...MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE
DISRUPTED...AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS AIR MASS ON MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...
ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS
UNLIKELY...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER /AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE/ PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
INSTABILITY...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO 30-50 KT...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS IT
SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  MOST OF THE REGION MAY
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...BUT
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.  BENEATH A RESIDUAL
POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A ZONE OF STRONGER
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE
THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MIXED
LAYER CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS INHIBITION ERODES DURING PEAK
HEATING...THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THIS
MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.  AIDED
BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...A SMALL BUT
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/26/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

  


severe weather links


site by hayley.ws